АНАЛИЗ ВОЗМОЖНОЙ АДАПТАЦИИ УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ОСНОВНЫХ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ КУЛЬТУР МОЛДОВЫ К НОВЫМ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИМ УСЛОВИЯМ СОГЛАСНО МОДЕЛЯМ ОБЩЕЙ ЦИРКУЛЯЦИИ АТМОСФЕРЫ И ОКЕАНА CSIRO-MK2, HADCM2, ECHAM4

Лилия ЦЭРАНУ Институт экологии и географии АН Молдовы

Abstract

In comparison with the reference period (1960-1990), for the 2010-2039 time series it was revealed a relative advantage of such adaptation measures like use of crops rotation and the optimal selection of predecessors. Depending on the crop and the general atmospheric circulation models (ECHAM4, HadCM2 and CSIRO-Mk2), the predicted increase of productivity will vary for winter wheat – from 2.8% under the ECHAM4, to 5.5% under the CSIRO-Mk2 and up to 7.2% under HadCM2; for grain maize – from 12.5% under the ECHAM4 to14.9% under the HadCM2 and up to 16.0% under the CSIRO-Mk2; for sunfl ower – from 23.0% under the ECHAM4 to 24.2% under the HadCM2 and up to 28.6% under the CSIRO-Mk2; for sugar beet – from 16.8% under the ECHAM4 to 17.4% under the CSIRO-Mk2. By 2070-2099 periods, due to the increase of average air temperature and evaporation, as well as a consequence of precipitations decrease, the effectiveness of respective adaptation measures will reduce signifi cantly. It was revealed that by improving the land use systems, inclusive by taking into consideration the future climate changes, in parallel with other socio-economical measures, it will be possible to reduce the negative impact of climate changes and even obtain a certain economic benefi t.