АНАЛИЗ ВОЗМОЖНОЙ АДАПТАЦИИ УРОЖАЙНОСТИ ОСНОВНЫХ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННЫХ КУЛЬТУР МОЛДОВЫ К НОВЫМ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИМ УСЛОВИЯМ CОГЛАСНО МОДЕЛЯМ ОБЩЕЙ ЦИРКУЛЯЦИИ АТМОСФЕРЫ И ОКЕАНА CSIRO-MK2, HADCM2, ECHAM4

Лилия ЦЭРАНУ Институт экологии и географии АН Молдовы

Аннотация

In comparison with the reference period (1960-1990), for the 2010-2039 time series it was revealed a high effectiveness of such adaptation measure as fertilizers use. In dependence of the crop and the general atmospheric circulation models (ECHAM4, HadCM2 and CSIRO-Mk2), the predicted increase of productivity will vary for winter wheat – from 11.0% under the ECHAM4, to 14.0% under the CSIRO-Mk2 and up to 15.7% under HadCM2; for maize –from 21.5% under the ECHAM4 to 24.1% under the HadCM2 and up to 25.3% under the CSIRO-Mk2 model; for sunfl ower – from 32.8% under the ECHAM4 to 34.1% under the HadCM2 and up to 38.9% under the CSIRO-Mk2; for sugar beet – from 26.1% under the ECHAM4 to 26.7% under the CSIRO-Mk2. Further, by 2070-2099 periods, due to the increase of average air temperatures and the evaporation, as well as a consequence of precipitations decrease, the effectiveness of respective adaptation measure will reduce signifi cantly. Within the respective period of time the winter wheat and sugar beat will reveal more vulnerability to climate change, while the grain maize less vulnerability to the new climate conditions. For sunfl ower it will be characteristic a continuing increases of productivity, varying from 33.1% under the ECHAM4 up to 38.4% under the CSIRO-Mc2 and HadCM2 models.